Follow the idea.
A concept, in three framesRead the score.
Check which outcomes the reward counts.
Follow the effort.
Resolution and closure use effort differently.
Inspect the cases.
A closed case can remain unresolved.
A WORKING DEFINITION
Proxies and incentives
A proxy is a measure used to stand in for an intended outcome. Incentives attach a reward to a measure; the rewarded action can depend on what that measure counts.
FOLLOW ONE EXAMPLE
Name the outcome before choosing the score.
With twenty effort units, twenty administrative closures yield twenty closed cases and zero resolutions. Ten resolutions use the same effort and yield ten closed cases with ten resolutions. At the default midpoint, five resolutions and ten administrative closures yield fifteen closed cases. The two counts overlap; they are not additive categories.
Work through the investigation →WHERE THE CLAIM STOPS
Keep the assumptions attached.
This model supplies the action costs and assumes perfect confirmation of resolutions. It does not predict how real people behave or prove that every target fails.
Inspect this model’s assumptions and definitions
- This is a deterministic constructed model, not an empirical claim about workers or inevitable target failure.
- Confirmed resolutions are assumed to be perfectly observed; real verification can be difficult and costly.
- Switching the reward does not reallocate effort. Closed and resolved counts overlap and must not be added.
Definitions used in this instrument
- budget
- twenty-effort-units-and-twenty-distinct-cases
- actions
- resolution-costs-two-admin-closure-costs-one
- intendedOutcome
- confirmed-resolutions-perfectly-observed
- closed
- resolutions-plus-administrative-closures
SOURCES & SCOPE
Read beyond the model.
Manheim & Garrabrant (2019 revision), Categorizing Variants of Goodhart’s Law ↗
Primary conceptual analysis distinguishing mechanisms of metric overoptimization. This original deterministic proxy example is not an empirical study or a simulation of all those mechanisms.
All example data, figures and exact calculations on this page are original constructed teaching material. Source publications provide conceptual background, not the example dataset.
Open the instrument →