Count the reports.
Several reports can repeat one observation.
A claim can travel further than its evidence.
INSTRUMENTS / EVIDENCE & BELIEF
Constructed exampleFollow the claim to its origins.
Change an input. Inspect every step. Keep a fixed record.
01 / THE QUESTION
Would twelve reports feel like twelve confirmations?
The opening example has twelve reports repeating one claim: “The programme shortened the wait.” How many observations sit behind them?
Keep a first thought
Optional. Included only when you explicitly save; excluded from shared links.
Constructed data · every relationship and outcome is supplied.
02 / OPEN THE MODEL
Edit records and citations
A citation runs from a report to what it cites. Observations end paths. Apply a valid draft before saving or sharing.
Report / directly cites / reached origins
12Reportsreports
3Reached observationsobservations
0Unresolved reportsreports
THE SOURCE REGISTER
3 places to begin.
○ Observation O16 reports
○ Observation O24 reports
○ Observation O32 reports
Groups can overlap. Shared ancestry is not evidence quality.
Follow the idea.
A concept, in three framesFollow the citation.
Inspect each step back to the source.
Evaluate the origins.
Different origins do not establish independence.
HOLD ONE VERSION STILL
What changes when you change the model?
Keep the current inputs beside your next adjustment.
Agreement has a history. Open it.
A report can cite a report that cites another report. Follow the path before counting a new observation. Different paths can lead to the same origin.
Save this experiment
MODEL & LIMITS
What this model leaves open
Distinct origins do not establish independence, reliability or truth. An untraced report is missing lineage, not an extra observation.
- InputsWhat is supplied?
- DefinitionWhat is counted?
- InferenceWhat follows?
Inspect the exact workings
O1, O2 and O3 denote a supplied queue log, interview note and audit note in the default example. These labels do not establish independence. Claim identity: fictional-programme-shortened-wait.
| Report | Directly cites | Reached observations | Untraced branches |
|---|---|---|---|
| R01 | O1 | O1 | None |
| R02 | R01 | O1 | None |
| R03 | R01 | O1 | None |
| R04 | R02 | O1 | None |
| R05 | R02 | O1 | None |
| R06 | R03 | O1 | None |
| R07 | O2 | O2 | None |
| R08 | R07 | O2 | None |
| R09 | R08 | O2 | None |
| R10 | R07 | O2 | None |
| R11 | O3 | O3 | None |
| R12 | R11 | O3 | None |
0 reports have both known and unresolved lineage. 0 repeated paths reach an already-counted observation. Groups can overlap; their memberships are not an additive report total.
All supplied observations: O1, O2, O3. Only observations reached by a report count as reached origins.
Assumptions, sources and evidence status
Original constructed fixture: constructed-provenance-v1. provenance-v1. No empirical observations are represented by these example counts.
- Distinct origins do not establish independence, reliability or truth.
- Untraced reports are not additional observations.
- This bounded directed acyclic graph is a teaching model, not a complete provenance standard.