Count the reports.
Several reports can repeat one observation.
A claim can travel further than its evidence.
INVESTIGATIONS / EVIDENCE & BELIEF
Constructed exampleWhen does agreement become an echo?
The same claim, repeated twelve times. Follow what each report actually cites.
YOUR TASK / CONSTRUCTED EXAMPLE
Assess the claim before passing it on
You’re checking a fictional briefing that says a programme shortened the wait. Make a provisional assessment, then open the citation trail behind the reports.
An evidence trail.
Your decision.
Begin with a provisional judgment
Loading the supplied example…
Keep a private first thought (optional)
Private writing stays out of links and default downloads. A reopened link does not restore it.
This records a provisional judgment and the starting configuration. It does not change a mathematical setting or save automatically.
01 / THE QUESTION
Would twelve reports feel like twelve confirmations?
The opening example has twelve reports repeating one claim: “The programme shortened the wait.” How many observations sit behind them?
Keep a first thought
Optional. Included only when you explicitly save; excluded from shared links.
Constructed data · every relationship and outcome is supplied.
02 / OPEN THE MODEL
Report / directly cites / reached origins
—Reportsreports
—Reached observationsobservations
—Unresolved reportsreports
Agreement has a history. Open it.
A report can cite a report that cites another report. Follow the path before counting a new observation. Different paths can lead to the same origin.
Save this experiment
Explore the model and compare working versions
Follow the idea.
A concept, in three framesFollow the citation.
Inspect each step back to the source.
Evaluate the origins.
Different origins do not establish independence.
HOLD ONE VERSION STILL
What changes when you change the model?
Keep the current inputs beside your next adjustment.
MODEL & LIMITS
What this model leaves open
Distinct origins do not establish independence, reliability or truth. An untraced report is missing lineage, not an extra observation.
- InputsWhat is supplied?
- DefinitionWhat is counted?
- InferenceWhat follows?
Inspect the exact workings
O1, O2 and O3 denote a supplied queue log, interview note and audit note in the default example. These labels do not establish independence. Claim identity: fictional-programme-shortened-wait.
| Report | Directly cites | Reached observations | Untraced branches |
|---|---|---|---|
| R01 | O1 | O1 | None |
| R02 | R01 | O1 | None |
| R03 | R01 | O1 | None |
| R04 | R02 | O1 | None |
| R05 | R02 | O1 | None |
| R06 | R03 | O1 | None |
| R07 | O2 | O2 | None |
| R08 | R07 | O2 | None |
| R09 | R08 | O2 | None |
| R10 | R07 | O2 | None |
| R11 | O3 | O3 | None |
| R12 | R11 | O3 | None |
0 reports have both known and unresolved lineage. 0 repeated paths reach an already-counted observation. Groups can overlap; their memberships are not an additive report total.
All supplied observations: O1, O2, O3. Only observations reached by a report count as reached origins.
Assumptions, sources and evidence status
Original constructed fixture: constructed-provenance-v1. provenance-v1. No empirical observations are represented by these example counts.
- Distinct origins do not establish independence, reliability or truth.
- Untraced reports are not additional observations.
- This bounded directed acyclic graph is a teaching model, not a complete provenance standard.